You probably think you know what’s good for you.

You probably think that predicting happiness means you actually know what will make you happy.

So, what comes to mind?

Cash-stacking lottery daydreams?

True love fantasies?

World travelling escape from the 9-to-5 grind?

Yes, yes that all sounds good…great in fact.

But will those things really make you happy? Really?

Recent science tells us that most of us get “happy” wrong.

When it comes right down to it, our ideas of happiness and the future really are not much of a match.

So, before you devote a portion of your income to corner store lottery tickets, update your Match.com profile, or quit your job to go stand in line for that passport picture, there are a few things about predicting happiness you should know:

A general feeling of “meh” naturally wears on happiness

Science calls this hedonic adaptation. Basically, people just get used to the things, events, or people that were supposed to push their basic plateau of happiness to a higher level. Our mental predictions of ecstasy and sustained pleasure created by the things we want simply don’t stand up over time. We get used to piles of cash or the sweet nothings whispered by Mr. or Mrs. Right. New pleasures wane as we settle back to our baseline of happiness, which is that emotional state and experiences by which further positive experiences are measured.

You may have a “happiness set-point”

The set-point theory of happiness expands on this idea of hedonic adaptation, suggesting that our personal ideas of happiness are generally pre-determined essentially by heredity and ingrained personality characteristics developed early on. This “happiness set-point” remains fairly consistent over the course of our lives. You basically have this place in your head that is “fine.” No matter how much time you spend predicting happiness or experiencing incredible good fortune, you might just end up as happy as you were before. No more, no less.

Happiness forecasting fails happen all the time

All of this is really not so bad. It all comes down to how you think about it. While it’s true that predicting happiness, also known as affective forecasting, isn’t as straightforward or easy as we think it’ll be, it’s not all that unusual and there are still crucial lessons to be learned.

The pursuit of happiness is natural and, to a large degree, worthwhile. We strive at work, we care and educate our children, we exercise, we buy organic, all with a happier future in mind.

But when we get to the future, “meh” and “fine” are there to meet us.

Maybe this happiness business isn’t so much about reaching an end goal.

If we just aren’t that good at predicting happiness, perhaps it’s as Daniel Gilbert, happiness researcher, expert, and author of Stumbling on Happiness says:

“I’d like to say that I am trying to understand errors in affective forecasting so that we can learn how best to overcome them. The trouble is that forecasting errors are not clearly a “disease” that requires a “cure.” Indeed, some people have suggested that inaccurate forecasts may play an important role in our lives. When we overestimate how good we’ll feel when things go right and how bad we’ll feel when things go wrong, we work harder to make sure the good things happen and the bad things don’t. Anxiety and fear are useful emotions that keep us from touching hot stoves, committing adultery, and sending our children to play on the freeway. Would it really be better if we all knew that in the long run, children and money don’t make us wildly happy and that illness and divorce don’t make us desperately sad? Perhaps, but perhaps not.“

Predicting happiness isn’t easy, but it is important.

Even if the lottery isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.